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Today Market

27 Apr 2018

The Geopolitical Series Dealings


Today, history is being made as North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-Un become the first among the Kim dynasty to visit South Korea and to hold talks with a sitting South Korean president in order to forge an agreement that would see the end of hostility between two nations divided in the aftermath of the second world war. While one can only speculate on how an agreement between the two Koreas would look like, one thing is certain that a deal can be forged with relative ease where it’s a win-win for everyone. Here is the list of parties involved in the negotiations and how they can benefit from a historic agreement,

  • North Korea (DPRK): The biggest gainer could easily be North Korea which can gain its rightful place in the world and revive its economy which has suffered decades of isolation and sanctions by western countries in exchange for a halt in its nuclear ambition and testing of ballistic missiles. For Kim Jong-Un, the personal gain could also be large as his peace achievements could easily
    surpass the weapons and war achievements of his predecessors.
     
  • South Korea: There is nothing better than a good night’s sleep and DPRK leader’s promise today to not to disturb the peace of South Korean citizen by further missile tests. The biggest gainer in South Korea is definitely President Moon Jae-in, who would not only see his ratings go up but become a part of a historic moment. South Korea’s market could also benefit from a lasting peace agreement.
     
  • China: It is in the interest of China to reduce the risk of a nuclear war near its border. Though China has significant influence over North Korea, it is somewhat limited due to North’s nuclear weapons. A lasting peace agreement could also see a reduction in U.S. and South Korean military drills near its border.
     
  • Russia: Russia, which is another supporter of the Kim regime has long wanted peace in the Peninsula and reduction in U.S. military activity in the region.
     
  • United States: The United States is one of the key players here, which in the past failed to achieve a lasting peace agreement with North Korea due to opposition from lawmakers. The last such effort failed during the Clinton administration. A lasting peace agreement is in the interest of the Trump administration, which wants to reduce its military cost in the region and could be a personal achievement for President Trump, who could go down in history as the North Korean peace broker.
     
  • Japan: compared to the above players, Japan has been left out (relatively) of the direct negotiations but it can benefit too from a direct reduction of nuclear threats hovering over the region and find relief by not seeing North Korean missile flying through its airspace.

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